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Thread: Drive-by-wireless: why the future of cars is P2P mesh, 4G cellular, and the cloud

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    Moderator - CarPC News Penzance's Avatar
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    Drive-by-wireless: why the future of cars is P2P mesh, 4G cellular, and the cloud


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    Mod - iPad Forums RipplingHurst's Avatar
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    2020 Driverless cars? LOL. Never. You can call them mini-trains, or micro-buses, or what you want,

    but a car needs a driver. The day he realizes his prediction, a driverless car, media centered, will be the day there will be no car manufacturers anymore. There will be no point differentiating much, you buy the same mini-bus it will take it where you want to go at the same speed/feeling/sensations of everybody else's car. You might as well take the bus...wait!?


    2020 is not going to happen. Remember the flying car, jetsons style? We should have those by now...alas. THAT would be fun. And cities in the sky.

    As for his 2015 predictions, I think the things you can do with your voice is vastly overrated. I wonder if this guy tests the voice stuff in the car when actually using the car (not just testing), like I do.

    I have a pretty decent voice control in the car (Win7 + CF), but I don't use it as much: music playing (I use the OEM Radio to listen to music, and the carputer for other stuff) can disrupt voice recognition for other stuff.

    More importantly, voice control can be really disruptive for a friendly environment in the car, specially for the passengers - trust me, I do weekend trips a lot and voice control does not help - and the steering wheel buttons are just for music transport/volume. More things, controlled by voice? That can't be the future.

    You press the voice button, music stops, everybody freezes, looking at each other - that's when the douche-driver starts talking to his carputer...LOL

    Trust me, it's not fun using voice control in a car with 6 other happy people talking - as I do sometimes.

    Mind control. That is the future...Or maybe something like MS Kinectic.

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    Seems a bit far-fetched. The main problem with most of these scenarios is the transition. I mean, driverless cars, I get it. Not a big technical problem to build a road that is specifically designed for a computer guided automobile to traverse.

    The real problem is what are you going to do about all those cars that don't have auto-drive? Take a look around in traffic and tell me how many rusty 80's and 90's beaters people seem to be able to keep running. Mixing manual and auto drive traffic is a huge problem.

    And what if you want to do something even more difficult like have auto-drive on ANY type of road? Under ANY conditions like hard rain, ice, or snow? And mix it together with manually operated cars?

    It's a problem that has no easy solution. Even mandating auto-drive technology that allows nearby cars to confer on their direction and coordinate their actions would take until way beyond 2020 and increase the cost of the car by a huge amount. And what is the benefit? If you car costs you $5,000 extra but drives itself, well, I dunno about you but I think I'd rather save the cash and chauffeur myself thank you very much.

    That doesn't mean his vision isn't valid, though. I think we'll see it creep in through safety systems rather than government mandates. Sleepy driver detection, dynamic cruise control, auto braking accident avoidance systems, etc. As these become more prevalent and less expensive, they'll surely make their way into lower and lower level autos. Eventually, a large enough percentage of drivers will have them and they will become ubiquitous.

    Just look around now - how many cars do you ride in that have crank down windows and manual locks? There's some, to be sure, but they are very, very common whereas they used to be available only on high end luxury rides.

    But all of that technology is going to be farther out than 2020. The guy is talking about 9 years from now with most cars driving themselves. That's pretty ambitious for a technology that has an uncertain benefit behind it. I mean, sure, I'd like to have that so I could sleep on a long trip but I don't really need it when I drive around town -the trips are awfully short for that kind of unnecessary stuff.

    I'd rather have an auto delivery van I could call up and tell it to go buy me that four foot section of PVC pipe I need from Home Depot to finish the weekend project I'm working on. But I don't want to PAY for it, of course!
    Quote Originally Posted by ghettocruzer View Post
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    1950: "In the 1960s well all be driving (around in) helicopters."

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    Mod - iPad Forums RipplingHurst's Avatar
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    Yeah. Think about the costs of retrofitting an old car with the technology required to see other cars, dogs, bikes, traffic lights, etc.

    Unless they use only new highway lanes: that would mean the government would built an expensive infrastructure for the rich able to buy the newest driverless cars..."hey, you can't drive here (the best way to downtown), that's for those with 2020 model years..."

    What about maintenance? There is a reason airplanes are so reliable. Top notch maintenance cost: "you killed a pedestrian because you didn't clean/calibrated your sensors's lenses at the dealer $$$...30 years jail time for you (and you're not even driving the thing!)!"

    Nice future.

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    one thing that neither touched on, and what i believe that Kaveh might have forgotten is the product development cycle of new cars..

    the 2020 auto-drive cars prediction is really premature imo.. i would say that if it were the future-- and i don't really believe it is-- it is at least 50 years out...

    the amount of time it takes most auto makers to start production on a new car is almost as long as his prediction...

    a great recent example-- i was looking for info on a updated chevy el-camino.. there are reports that it might be coming out in 2015...

    that is just a possible concept release--to compare to the chevy volt-- the chevy page says they moved from concept to release in less then 4 years. and that is fast in car manufacturing terms..


    and as riplinghurst touched on-- what would make anyone want a toyota auto-drive car over a chevy auto-drive car? they both do the same things, and will very likely have very similar looks, minus the vehicle badges...

    and bugbyte-- i completely agree-- what motivation do i have as a 'legacy car' driver to upgrade my car to have this probably-expensive add-on package?

    it does start to become a chicken-and-egg dilemma though-- if there are no cars to use the network, why build it? but if there is no network, by build the cars?

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    Remember that the guy doing the talking worked for AT&T. He might manufacture tech for the car, but if he does have a good grasp of the automotive development, testing and manufacturing process he's not explaining how it's going to happen. If the Volt was a fast development project at 4 years, then the autodrive technology will have to be in automaker's hands by 2016, just 5 years from now.

    Unless he thinks some other type of manufacturing will emerge like "open source print your car manufacturing" that will replace the industry. Which, unless it build auto-flying cars that cost 1/2 of what a car does and uses 1/3 less fuel and travels twice as fast as a car isn't going to happen in that time frame.

    The tech guys often call it wrong when it comes to manufacturing physical products. The Eclipse light jet was a manufacturer founded by silicon valley entrepreneurs with serious cash and the idea that they could use revolutionary techniques to design, build, and certify a jet for under $1 million dollars. They were awarded the Collier Trophy -one of aviation's highest honors, for producing a few of the airplanes.

    When they liquidated the company, they'd built less than 1,000 of the planes, they cost nearly twice the target price, had less performance and range than advertised and couldn't fly in icing conditions.

    Real world stuff is a lot harder than most people think. Car companies have long lead times because the cars they produce are of extremely high quality. Even the lowest end piece of junk will last you more than 100k miles and have parts and support for it with a warranty if it breaks. They can't afford to produce crap, it won't sell.

    Currently, when you have a car accident, unless there is provable mechanical failure, YOU the driver (or the other driver) is at fault and shoulder the blame. That's why YOU have to have car insurance when you drive. Putting autodrive technology in a car means that the CAR COMPANY is agreeing to take some of the blame if the system fails. There is absolutely no way autodrive technology is not going to end up in court with lawyers piling on to show that it caused an accident and therefore the car company is to blame. The car companies have the deepest pockets and that's where they can get the most money from.

    Most of the technology that is going into cars now is of the 'help you PREVENT and accident' rather than help you drive the vehicle sort. There's a reason for that and making the car drive itself is just not something I think you'll see from an established car manufacturer any time soon.
    Quote Originally Posted by ghettocruzer View Post
    I was gung ho on building a PC [until] just recently. However, between my new phone having internet and GPS and all...and this kit...Im starting to have trouble justfiying it haha.
    Want to:
    -Find out about the new iBug iPad install?
    -Find out about carPC's in just 5 minutes? View the Car PC 101 video

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