I'm no expert, but it sounds right on. Looking at your PicoPSU it has a peak on the 12V rail of only 10A with max continuous at 7A and total max output of 140W( if fan-cooled). With your fans, HD and MB in addition to your Desktop CPU I'd guess it is to much. The Pico PSU even suggests mobile or low power processors and 95W is not exactly low copmared to what is available now.
Honestly I would suggest looking into the M2-ATX since your case is already made to hold it. That should give you enough overhead to get things going for the lowest cost.
Short of that check other CPus that will fit your Mobo for example the Celeron E3400 is close but only 65W it might do the job http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produc...82E16819116348