Startin' to feel some of that old time religion there....
I think you make some reasonable points, and Android is certainly getting a lot of buzz. I'm not entirely sure I understand the purpose of a netbook (ie where and why it fits in vis a vis laptops, blackberrys, PDAs, cellphones), but again, its a product segment with a lot of buzz.
Currently the product price point is $300-400 and will probably fall from there. I'm not sure that processor cost is what's driving that price (more likely, display costs). Battery life? How much more would you have to get from ARM in order to present a compelling buy decision to the consumer? 20%? 30%? A Samsung N120 with an Atom 1.6 already offers 10.5 hours of use...how much more do you think would be needed?
I think you're probably right. It's VERY likely that somebody will try to bring an ARM-based device to market, possibly sporting Android or some kind of linux derivative. But I seriously doubt anyone will buy it BECAUSE it has an ARM processor, just as nobody's buying the N120 BECAUSE it has an Atom. It's the OS and Apps that drive the sale, and 70-80% of the market will give the Windoze solution the nod, possibly due to "inertia"
VegasGuy