Quote: Originally Posted by Tidder
Why OSX? I think it will be like when they released windows ME. Everyone bought it, used it, and hated it. So, they reverted to windows 98, not a non-ms os. So why will OSX win?? I figure when longhorn comes out and it flops, people will just go back to XP while MS regoups.
MS has supposedly been "regrouping" for the last decade! Windows XP was everything they promised it to be, after learning some hard lessons from ME. Here's the problem now, however:
MS has been working on Longhorn for the last few years. Contrary to their statements on this issue, they have NOT changed their development methodology since all of the mess with XP (IE constant security flaws etc). Even Server 2k3, which admittedly is a rock-solid product, is far from secure. People will snag it because of ease of install, but now MS has a big black eye over their sneaky ad campaign, where they attempted to fleece people into thinking that it's far more expensive to run a Linux/Unix server than to run an MS-based one.
Back to the OSX thing. People have gotten more intelligent since XP's release. Those that use/maintain/repair computers on a regular basis are, for the most part, tracking the progress of Longhorn. MS users began noticing all the noise the Apple users were making about stability and ease of use, and started wondering how they could get usability like that with their PCs. Microsoft heard the grumblings, and started making announcements about the new features of the coming Longhorn. Some of them included:
1) Unix-style commandline authorization structure, which would let the user control every aspect of the OS from the commandline.
2) A true journaling filesystem (such as Apple and Linux use) that would allow the OS to operate for longer periods without fragmentation issues, and allow the user to search for things much faster, since the search is based off a database, and not by checking all of the files on the drive one-by-one. This type of filesystem also provides the ability to resume file transfer operations after an unexpected crash.
3) Support for much larger hard drive capacities. With the coming HVD terabyte optical disk technology, this would be very important.
Now, let's look at what MS has said about its coming product thus far:
- Announces Longhorn will be the last Windows product. Ever. MS said they planned to create a universal standard OS that would be around long enough and be flexible enough to support foreseeable technological advances.
- Announces a pushback of the release date by a few years to 2008.
- Pulls Unix commandline support from the Longhorn core
- Announces earlier release date, to be released in 2006
- Cripples MSFS (The aforementioned journaling filesystem) so that it will be phased in over multiple service-pack releases. (MS said officially that this was to prevent a huge problem for users attempting to use their old software on the new filesystem, completely ignoring the fact that the filesystem would have no bearing on grandpa's ability to play that copy of Hoyle Solitaire written in 1992.)
- Announces earlier release date, to be released in 2005
- Announces intentions for future completely separate versions of Windows beyond Longhorn, and rolls back Longhorn release date to sometime in 2007
- Pulls MSFS support completely out of Longhorn, with no intentions of ever implementing it in Longhorn at all.
Wow. They just can't seem to get their act together, and despite the issues that are arising from the way they are developing their code, they have not changed the way they do it. They use hundreds of people, in dozens of teams, none of which are allowed to communicate with each other to convey conflict and runtime issues. Each team has to find a way to hack around the issues the previous team missed or inadvertently created. MS simply needs to re-write an OS completely from scratch with the lessons they have learned from Windows thus far, but instead Longhorn is going to be nothing more than a hugely bloated version of XP.
Through all of this, Apple has been releasing patched editions of OSX here and there, but nowhere near the scale of MS' hotfixes and security patches. Through all of this, OSX has maintained a solid, easy to use interface. Through all of this, Apple has not made any pretentious claims as to what their software was for or what it could do.
To break all of this down simply: Apple/Unix/Linux is for people who are professional users, or who are simply fed up with the MS issues. MS is for people that are either too immersed in Windows and compatible software to deal with anything else, too lazy or scared to try anything new, or too stupid to even wonder if there was anything other than Windows out there. I get quite a few of those types in my store, who think the computer is called a "Microsoft". However, there are less and less of these people making an appearance. By Longhorn's release, many more people will be fed up with the way MS is doing things, and will take the initiative to try something else, and discover Apple waiting there to give them what they're looking for.
It took 10 years for the letters "VCR" to become a household acronym, and "DVD" only became household a couple years ago. Computers are so diverse and complex, that the concept of what makes them tick is just now starting to bleed into general society. Gone are the days when us nerds were percieved as destined to rule the world. Our brand of magic has been revealed to be the really flashy science that it actually is. It's my firm belief that by the time Longhorn comes out, people will be either so dizzy with MS' constant waffling or so fed up with Windows issues, that they will run to Apple. Why apple? Because at present, Unix isn't designed for desktops, and Linux is going in too many crazy directions to be used as a common desktop environment. Among all the OSes available, only Apple has remained steady, and with the advent of OSX and its future versions, has become the most stable user-friendly environment out there. In terms of stability, Windows comes in a sharp fourth among the major players, and almost everyone of importance in the field already knows it.
*runs off to soak fingers in hot water*
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